The new State of Grocery Retail Europe report for 2025 was published by McKinsey & Company and EuroCommerce. It takes a comprehensive look at the key trends shaping the grocery sector in 2025 and beyond. The report is based on interviews with four grocery CEOs, a survey of more than 30 European CEOs, and a survey of over 14,000 consumers across 13 European countries.
Although overall volume growth is expected to remain low in 2025 and through 2030, there are signs of recovery in some markets. Grocers are expected to shift their focus to capturing growth opportunities and laying the groundwork for future advancements. Despite continued cost and margin pressure, grocery retail CEOs are slightly more optimistic than they were in 2024.
The report also found that private labels gained an additional share in 2024, and 84 percent of consumers say they will continue buying private label products even if their purchasing power grows. Grocers increasingly position their own brands not just as cheaper alternatives, but as differentiated alternatives to A-brands.
There is a growing appetite for healthy food. The demand for healthy options and functional food is increasing, especially among members of Generation Z. Generation Z not only has the highest intent (45 percent) to focus on healthy nutrition among all cohorts, but it also has the highest growth as a group of shoppers.
Personalization is the new standard for engagement. More than half of all shoppers say they will likely become repeat buyers after a personalized experience, and personalization has the potential to drive an uplift of 4 to 6 percent in revenue and retention. Increasingly, grocers use AI to personalize the shopping experience.